The Oncoming 2012 Taiwan President Election and Its Political Indications

Currently, Taiwan only completed a FTA framework with China. It is so-called ECFA. It is estimated that all the sub-trade agreements including trade in goods, trade in service, indestment protection under the ECFA between Taiwan and China would not be completed before the oncoming Taiwan President's Election in the beginning of 2012. I think China want to wait the result of Taiwan's oncoming President Election.

It is clear that if the opposing party, DPP, win this election and still continue its insist about denying the so-callled one-China consensus conducted in 1992, which is one of the core interests emphasized by China, all the sub-trade agreements negotiations would fail in the end. The rest Taiwan can do is to strive for joing the TPP led by the US. The costs of joing the TPP is no dount higher than ECFA and the completion of TPP in 2012 will still be uncertain, due its high threshold of libralization requirement proporsedby the US.

I would like to indicate the benefits and costs of the result of this oncoming election, and hopefully, everyone in Taiwan realizes what the consequence it will be.